Kalonzo Musyoka 2022 Chances

What, really, are the chances of Kalonzo Musyoka becoming the president of Kenya in 2022? Well, it depends on who you ask. But there is no doubt that Kalonzo Musyoka is one of the ‘main politicians’ in Kenya, with a solid (or near-solid) voting block behind him. The Kamba voting block (whose politically correct name is lower eastern voting block) is quite huge. You are looking, as per 2017 voter register figures, at almost 1.5 million registered voters in Ukambani alone [Machakos 600k+, Makueni 400k+, and Kitui 500k+], with many more Kamba voters registered all over Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi,Taita Taveta, Lamu and Garrisa. It is easy to forget that the Kalenjin voting block is of more or less the same size. So one can only believe that if he gets into good alliances with other politicians who control similar solid voting blocks, then Kalonzo Musyoka’s chances of ascending to the higher office in the land would be quite good.

There has been talk of other upcoming politicians like Dr Alfred Mutua of Machakos and Kivutha Kibwana of Makueni usurping Kalonzo Musyoka as Kamba kingpins. That is a very real possibility, but one also has to look at the reality. Although Dr Mutua had candidates in all Ukambani parliamentary seats, only one managed to win a seat (namely Musau Musyoka of Mwala). And didn't Kivutha have to ditch his Muungano outfit, in favor of Kalonzo’s Wiper, to win the 2013 Makueni gubernatorial contest? So clearly, these fine gentlemen (who also happen to intellectuals, with doctorates) would have quite some way to go, before becoming Kamba kingpin. But then again, it may possible for them to win without using the community kingpin paradigm (though the question of whether Kenya politics has evolved to that level is yet to be resolved). Still, just as the late Bob Collymore managed to get a top Safaricom job without a degree, so it may be possible for someone without a tribal backing to win the Kenyan presidency. We have to entertain all possibilities. Just as it has become possible for one to get government services online through kenya ntsa ecitizen so may it become possible, some day in the near future, for one to win the Kenyan presidency without a tribal backing. Indeed, the other serious contender from Ukambani would be Nairobi Governor Mike Mbuvi Sonko, and that is definitely a darling of the masses who probably has what it takes to win the presidency without appealing to tribal sentiments.

Much still depends on whether there would be referendum before 2022, and what the results of the refurundum would be. If you have a referendum that downgrades the presidency in favor of, say, a premiership, then focus would shift from the presidency to the premiership. So the questions we would be asking would be as to what are the chances of Kalonzo becoming prime minister in 2022? What are the chances of Alfred Mutua becoming prime minister in 2022? What are the chances of Kivutha Kibwana becoming prime minister in 2022? What are the chances of Mike Mbuvi Sonko becoming a prime minister in 2022? What are the chances of Charity Ngilu becoming prime minister in 2022? And so on and so forth.