What, really, are the chances of Kalonzo Musyoka becoming
the president of Kenya in 2022? Well, it depends on who you ask. But there is
no doubt that Kalonzo Musyoka is one of the ‘main politicians’ in Kenya, with a
solid (or near-solid) voting block behind him. The Kamba voting block (whose
politically correct name is lower eastern voting block) is quite huge. You are
looking, as per 2017 voter register figures, at almost 1.5 million registered
voters in Ukambani alone [Machakos 600k+, Makueni 400k+, and Kitui 500k+], with
many more Kamba voters registered all over Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi,Taita
Taveta, Lamu and Garrisa. It is easy to forget that the Kalenjin voting block
is of more or less the same size. So one can only believe that if he gets into
good alliances with other politicians who control similar solid voting blocks,
then Kalonzo Musyoka’s chances of ascending to the higher office in the land
would be quite good.
There has been talk of other upcoming politicians like Dr Alfred
Mutua of Machakos and Kivutha Kibwana of Makueni usurping Kalonzo Musyoka as
Kamba kingpins. That is a very real possibility, but one also has to look at
the reality. Although Dr Mutua had candidates in all Ukambani parliamentary
seats, only one managed to win a seat (namely Musau Musyoka of Mwala). And didn't Kivutha have to ditch his Muungano outfit, in favor of Kalonzo’s Wiper, to win
the 2013 Makueni gubernatorial contest? So clearly, these fine gentlemen (who also happen to intellectuals, with doctorates) would have
quite some way to go, before becoming Kamba kingpin. But then again, it may possible for them to win without using the community kingpin paradigm (though
the question of whether Kenya politics has evolved to that level is yet to be
resolved). Still, just as the late Bob Collymore managed to get a top Safaricom job without a degree, so it may be possible for someone without a tribal backing to
win the Kenyan presidency. We have to entertain all possibilities. Just as it
has become possible for one to get government services online through kenya ntsa ecitizen so may it become possible, some day in the near future, for
one to win the Kenyan presidency without a tribal backing. Indeed, the other serious
contender from Ukambani would be Nairobi Governor Mike Mbuvi Sonko, and that is
definitely a darling of the masses who probably has what it takes to win the
presidency without appealing to tribal sentiments.
Much
still depends on whether there would be referendum before 2022, and what the
results of the refurundum would be. If you have a referendum that downgrades
the presidency in favor of, say, a premiership, then focus would shift from the
presidency to the premiership. So the questions we would be asking would be as
to what are the chances of Kalonzo becoming prime minister in 2022? What are
the chances of Alfred Mutua becoming prime minister in 2022? What are the
chances of Kivutha Kibwana becoming prime minister in 2022? What are the chances
of Mike Mbuvi Sonko becoming a prime minister in 2022? What are the chances of
Charity Ngilu becoming prime minister in 2022? And so on and so forth.
